Shkrebets and Partners represents AgroTrade Group in international arbitration

Introduction

We live in a world in flux, where volatility is not a passing disruption but the new operational reality. Few industries are more exposed than travel retail, at the crossroads of international mobility, discretionary spend, and geopolitical regulation. In 2024, that pressure was clear: amid record passenger volumes, reaching 9.5 billion and surpassing pre-pandemic peaks, travel retail sales growth still lags at $74.1 billion, about 13 percent below 2019 levels.

How travelers act, how they shop

Our global survey of more than 3,000 travelers along with interviews of more than 40 senior executives confirms two core shifts that underpin this gap. First, shopping frequency is falling by four percentage points year-over-year. Second, the long-standing proposition of “cheaper than downtown” is no longer enough to close the sale, and nearly four in 10 passengers doubt that duty-free delivers real savings.

In this environment, demand hasn’t collapsed, but it has fragmented by cohort and nationality and it has polarized by price tier. Gen Z shops less often but with sharper intent, buying when relevance, identity, or exclusivity is obvious. Older travelers are more conservative, trading down or opting out. Nationality dynamics sharpen the divide: Indian and Gulf travelers retain high price confidence, while many Western European passengers now expect brand relevance, credible value signals, beyond pricing benefits. As a result, the mid-tier continues to thin. Growth skews to either value entry points or more convincing premium.